Election Eve - Big Mo with Deeds

As a McAuliffe supporter, I can't say that this is overwhelmingly welcome news, but it is what it is. With the release of PPP's 14-point lead for Deeds, it's clear that the WaPo endorsement has started a brushfire for the affible and humble Senator from Bath.


Even with these numbers I wouldn't discount the power of the McAuliffe GOTV effort which is evidence of the uncanny, excellent, and powerful campaign that Mike Henry and Terry McAuliffe have put together.

Still, you can't argue with Creigh's numbers.

Fav-Unfav
Deeds 57-14
McAuliffe 40-40
Moran 47-23

An unfavorable rating of 14 shows that those who know Creigh love him and you know what. I do, too.



It's my sincere hope that Terry McAuliffe will be the nominee, the consolation that I find in these numbers is that it feels overwhelmingly unlikely that Brian Moran will be. Moran and his thuggish campaign have made such a mess of things that if he were to take this nomination, it would be a long hard summer trying to pull the team together. With Terry, the sheer excellence of the campaign and the need to oppose McDonnell would engender the unity necessary for Virginia to take the deep look necessary to really appreciate what a great leader Terry McAuliffe is and could be in Richmond.

With Creigh as the standard bearer, the party will come into line very quickly. In some cases, it's already started. Creigh the nominee would rapidly pull together enough resources to hopefully encompass some of Terry's outstanding campaign staff, and potentially some of the Moran campaign's passionate grassroots activism.

It's not over. This is the time to work and fight with everything you've got for your candidate

Nonetheless, this is going to be an historic primary. We'll point to this one for years to come. With Creigh or Terry as the nominee, we'll do great against Bob McDonnell. If it's Moran, welcome to the summer (decade?) of our discontent.

PPP: Good News for Deeds, McAuliffe... Moran? Not so Much

With only 12 days left before the Democratic primary here in Virginia,PPP takes a look at the remaining undecideds, and their findings are surprising.

First, this is an astonishingly fluid electorate. The candidates are largely unknown:

Among the voters still undecided 66% don't know enough about Creigh Deeds or Brian Moran to have an opinion about them one way or the other, and 55% don't know enough about McAuliffe.

So, who and where are these undecideds?

Many of them are African American, which could bode well for Terry McAuliffe:

-They're disproportionately African American- 37%, compared to 27% of the overall primary electorate in our most recent survey. So far McAuliffe has had the upper hand with them so that could work to his advantage.

Most are not in Northern Virginia - bad news for Brian Moran:

-They're disproportionately not from northern Virginia. While 29% of voters total in this race are, just 22% of the undecideds hail from the metro DC area. That's bad news for Brian Moran, who hasn't been able to get much momentum anywhere else in the state, and good news for Deeds whose weakest performance is in that region.

And many trend conservative, which may favor Creigh:

-They're more conservative and less liberal than primary voters as a whole. Among undecideds 27% are liberal and 22% are conservative, while in total 34% are liberal and just 14% are conservative. This could help Deeds, who does best with conservatives and worst with liberals, and hurt McAuliffe who does the best with liberals.

There's been a lot of good news lately for the McAuliffe and Deeds camps, and not much for the Morans. The trend continues.

SUSA: McAuliffe Leads, Deeds Surges, Moran Lags

SurveyUSA: McAuliffe 37%, Deeds 26%, Moran 22%

Lowell points out that this poll reduced the representation of African-Americans and women in its sample, both groups among which Terry is enjoying very strong support.

With only 20 days to go, now is the time when voters will start waking up and when the campaigns need the most support.

Now is when Terry needs you most. Go Terry!

McAuliffe's Earned Media, Support

I came across this very cute blog post by a mother who got some pictures taken of her son with Terry McAuliffe and will.i.am.

It got me thinking.

McAuliffe has run the best campaign in recent Virginia history. Beyond the fact that he's outraised his opponents in-state and out. This campaign has more field offices, more staff, better messaging, and much better events than the opposition of either party.

Moreover, Terry has both mastered the nuance of Virginia politics like the pro that he is, and has managed to master not only the media coverage, but the deep messaging as well. Every campaign has adopted Terry's "Jobs, jobs, jobs" theme, and suddenly the new guy on the block looks like he was the first one to arrive at the party.

One could argue that the sum total of all of this outstanding success can be seen in the polls, which at worst have him ahead and at best have him breaking away by double digits, but that's not all.

The total of the McAuliffe campaign's success can be seen in a mother writing a blog post about her son meeting a candidate and his famous protege. The total of the McAuliffe campaign's success can be seen in the growing consensus. It ranges from national and local media down to just plain regular folks.

It's the consensus that the Virginia Democratic primary has a leader named Terry McAuliffe, and chances are, he'll be Virginia's next Governor.

You can buy staff. You can buy great communications. But an emerging sense of leadership excellence can't be bought, that's something you have to earn.

SEIU Local to Endorse McAuliffe

Politico:

An SEIU local with members in Virginia, 32BJ, is announcing today that it'll endorse Terry McAuliffe in the race for governor of Virginia, a union spokeswoman, Julie Karant, said.

The union has 3,500 members in the state, office cleaners who maintain commercial buildings and government agencies throughout Northern Virginia, Karant said.

Macker momentum continues to build. Go Terry!

Where Was Brian Moran?

Huffpo reports that Brian Moran will be out with an all-out assault against Terry McAuliffe, asserting that McAuliffe didn't switch his support from Clinton to Obama quickly enough during the 2008 campaign.

...[T]here are whispers of lingering resentment among some Obama supporters that he didn't stop fighting when the battle was obviously over; Moran told me that he has heard such complaints from "numerous people" and has no doubt it will hurt McAuliffe in the primary. "There was a time when Democrats needed to come together behind our candidate, and he was very slow in doing that," Moran says.

We all know that after the nomination Hillary Clinton lent her full-throated support to the Obama campaign becomming one of his most successful suoorgates through the general election. And here in Virignia Terry McAuliffe went well beyond the call of duty campaigning tirelessly on behalf of our President Obama.

My questions for Brian Moran is, where was your support for Obama in 2008? Clearly you bravely stookdup for Barack in the primary... what? no you didn't? oh, you were courageously silent through the primary. Well, so it goes.

I'm sure Brian Moran led the charge for Obama in the Old Dominion, I'll link to every news article on it that I can find, except I guess the press never covered them. I'm sure Brian did a lot behind the scenes. Moran did give Obama $250. So, of course he has the moral high ground to attack McAuliffe on this.

Let's also not forget that the Moran camp warmly welcomed to their fold the Virginia political blogsphere's most vitrolic PUMA - Howling Latina. HL, viciously attacked Barack Obama deep into the 2008 general election with such astonishing assaults as

This:

Obama Loses, Clinton Wins
As sure as the sun rises in the east and sets in the west, poll numbers are evincing the incontrovertible data that Barky struggles while Hillary wins.

And yet...Obamazoids are still unconvinced...throwing the audacity of their hope in a candidate that's been shown to fall wide off the mark. Indeed, the latest MSNBC and WSJ poll shows that without Hillary on the ticket, Dems are in for another heartbreaking but predictable loss in November.

This:

Support Obama or You're a Racist
If poor blameless Obama loses in November, it's all those low-information, inbred racist Hillary supporters that will have cost him the race.

That's right; it has absolutely nothing to do with the fact that Obama has thugs for pals, an oversized ego, the flimsiest of resume, no moral authority, a racist for a preacher and a myriad of other deficiencies such as his meaningless blather about hope and change without any specificity attached to his words; nope, it's not Obama's fault if he loses.

Or This:

Election Thoughts...
In thinking about the Obama election win, Howling Latina has a bag full of mixed emotions. On the one hand, yes, the new president will be a Democrat, which hopefully means the national agenda will come from the left/center gravity force field. On the other hand, the howler can't help but wonder what might've been if only the Dems had chosen the better qualified candidate as their standard bearer to the disparities of gender equality and to the promotion of women issues.

Last, week the Raising Moran blog trumpeted HL's Moran endorsement despite the fact that it was really nothing more than a gut punch assault on Creigh Deeds, and now Moran is going nuclear trying to drive a wedge between Obama supporters and McAuliffe.

Brian Moran's campaign is exploring the regions of campaigning beyond the advanced stages of panic. He is going nuclear with hypocrisy. With the campaign running on fumes and the tires gone, Moran will now unleash any accusation and any hopeless attack, regardless of the moral low ground.

The hypocrisy of this latest assault is pretty pitiful. Like any good Democrat, McAuliffe took his pick in the primary and then put everything he had behind the nominee. Moran was once a solid Democrat, I fear he will emerge from this contest a broken candidate without a reputation.

Truly pitiful, but again, not unexpected.

UPDATE: Lowell is up with a list of McAuliffe's PrObama appearances and an Obama campaign video featuring Terry McAuliffe. Moran shouldn't have opened this can of worms.

Tuesday's Alexandria Disaster

You'll remember that because of his last minute decision to vacate his seat, Brian Moran almost cost Democrats one of their most reliable wins. His successor, Charniele Herring, came within 16 votes of a loss.

Moran's campaign chalked up another mark of shame this week. There's no excuse for the drubbing Alexandria Democrats received in Tuesday's City Council elections.

The Alexandria Democratic Committee suffered a setback Tuesday when two of its incumbent candidates were ousted by voters on Election Day. Republican Frank Fannon and independent candidate Alicia Hughes each won a place on the City Council. Incumbent Democrats Tim Lovain and Justin Wilson will step down from their seats this summer, when Fannon and Hughes will be installed as the council’s newest members. Some were calling for immediate changes in the party.

There are a lot of lessons to take away from this disaster. Some Democrats are calling for the ouster of Alexandria Committee Chair Susan Kellom:

"The buck stops with Susan Kellom," said outgoing Councilman Ludwig Gaines, calling for a new party leader. "She took credit for the victories with Democrats won, but she’s also got to take credit for the defeat."

This was Brian Moran's home turf, and if he is looking to be a kingmaker, he needs to show strength in his home town. While, the Alexandria Committee has some soul searching to do, Democrats from across Virginia need to be aware of how very weak the Moran campaign comes out of this debacle.

Here's a snippet I got from a poll worker for the McAuliffe campaign who was working at the Cory Kelly Rec Center polling place:

voter traffic was very slim at the Cora Kelly Rec Center. Apparently, none of the Alexandria races on this date are really competitive, thus low voter interest.

Given that this is Brian Moran country, I got quite good and polite reception from most voters. I really like the tag line "Jobs for Virginia" as it is punchy and easy to say even to voters moving fast.

[...]

No representatives of Moran or Deeds were there for most of the morning. At 8:20 am a Brian Moran guy showed up. It was obvious that he had been called by friends who were handing out literature at the polls. He was in a bad mood and spent most of his time talking to his friends

This is Brian Moran's home and his folks can't even turn out to work the polls for the City Council Election? I mean give me a break! Where's all that great grassroots support Brian? Where's all that devotion to helping down-ticket races?

This should serve as a wake up call for every Virginia Democrat. For all of our successes, VIRGINIA IS NOT BLUE! We have to fight and fight and fight every day, every election cycle to prove that Democratic ideas, values, and leadership are the best choice.

Tuesday's Alexandria Disaster was a result of complacency, plain and simple. McAuliffe is running the campaign necessary to win not just the Governor's mansion, but control of the House of Delegates. The McAuliffe campaign is working hard to get the word out at every level, while apparently the Morans can't be bothered to drive traffic, even in their backyard.

Every Democratic Delegate and every supporter of Democratic Delegates needs to keep this in mind. I'll leave you with some joyful celebration from the Republicans:

Congratulations to Councilmen-elect Frank Fannon and Alicia Hughes! Hughes ran as an Independent, but was endorsed by the Republican Party. That gives Republicans two votes on a six-person city council that Democrats have had a lock on since 2003, in a locality that went 72% for Obama six months ago!

Joe Murray, Pat Herrity, John Cook, now Fannon and Hughes. It’s been quite a four months for NoVa Republicans!

And this previous thought from the Too Conservative is worthy of consideration as well:

I fear McAuliffe drowning competitive House districts with money and giving a Democrat who could only raise $300K by himself an extra $500K to play around with.

Now we all have something to think about.

Moran Campaign Enters Panic Mode

Well, this is just getting sad.

First, Moran releases his internal polling numbers.

Kenton:

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
(Moran Campaign Internal)
606 LV, 4/30-5/3

TOPLINES
McAuliffe 31
Moran 29
Deeds 18
Undecided 22

FAV/UNFAV
McAuliffe 39/17
Moran 36/8
Deeds 31/11

Note that while these numbers show Moran behind, they at least show a dead heat on both toplines and favorables. After two straight double digit polls for McAuliffe, this can only be seen as a sign of outright panic. If the perception locks that McAuliffe is the leader and Moran is offering no message and gaining not traction, his funding and support will begin to evaporate. Such a shame...

Meanwhile, the Moran campaign broke their debate agreement and used footage from a debate in the latest of their pitiful online attacks against McAuliffe.

Read the Farm Team's charges against the Moran campaign at Decision Virginia. If you can't trust Moran to keep his word on debate rules, how can you trust him to keep his word as the Democratic Nominee?

Panic, disorder, mayhem - the Moran campaign's work here is almost done.

PPP: McAuliffe leading by double digits

PPP is up with its monthly poll of the Virginia Gubernatorial race. Last month, PPP had Brian Moran up by 2 points, this month Terry's up by 10.

Last week SurveyUSA had McAuliffe up by 16, making this the second poll in as many weeks showing Terry McAuliffe up by double digits.

Lowell has much more.

People from across the Commonwealth and all walks of life are waking up to the sense of Terry's candidacy, and even the most vicious negative attacks from the Moran campaign can't dissuade the voters.

McAuliffe has developed particularly commanding leads among women, African Americans, and voters describing themselves as liberals.

PPP postulates that 60% of the electorate is still up for grabs, but goes on:

“This is the fourth time PPP has polled this contest and the first time one of the candidates has broken away from the pack,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “McAuliffe’s resources advantage finally seems to be manifesting itself and by the time Deeds and Moran can start catching up it may be too late.”

At this point Moran appears to be counting on a low-turnout primary in order to keep voters from the polls. His ongoing negative attacks against the Terry McAuliffe aren't driving up his numbers, and are, in fact, having no effect in driving up McAuliffe's negatives, which actually ticked DOWN in this survey.

McAuliffe saw a strong increase in his positive name recognition over the last month, going from a 32/29 favorability spread to a 42/25 one.

Since Brian Moran, his campaign and supporters seem congenitally incapable of listening to criticism, the only question now is whether the Moran campaign will go nuclear with their attacks on Terry McAuliffe. In fact, it's more a question of when.

Moran's Astonishing Negativity

If you watch last night's Gubernatorial Debate, one thing that will simply jump off the screen is the endless stream of negative attacks and whining complaints issuing from the mouth of candidate Brian Moran.

The main focus of the attacks was Terry McAuliffe, but he had some choice words for Creigh Deeds as well on the issue of marriage equality.

Even the heavily Moran-organized twitter crowd was astonished by Moran's negativity, two thirds picked Moran as the more negative on a twitter poll.

Brian Moran has spent two years campaigning for this office and he has still failed to pull together a central message. In the absence of a coherent communications plan, he has fallen back on vicious attacks and whining complaints. It's very disappointing for those of us who began this election cycle with high hope for Moran, but who have been truly disgusted by the vicious negativity of his flagging campaign.

Moran: McAuliffe - the Savior of the Democratic Party

Wow, just wow!

Check out Congressman Jim Moran's effusive praise of Terry McAuliffe on the occasion of his massive $5 million contribution to the 2005 Kaine Campaign, apparently the largest in DNC history.

Of course, we've got somebody here who's been a benefactor not just for the specific check we're going to talk about today, but this guy has been the savior in many ways of the whole national Democratic Party....he's a real family man, and that's one of the reasons why President Clinton chose Terry McAuliffe, because he was focused on his family and the community and all the values that really define what the Democratic Party needs to be all about. Terry has sacrificed what could be the most productive years of his life personally to making them the most productive years for the Democratic Party...we were so frustrated, it seemed as though we had the right people, we had the right ideas, but we just didn't have the money to get it across, and time and again, people who had financial vested interests in policies that we felt were not in the long-term best interest of the public were taking over the political process. Terry McAuliffe got in there, he has gone around the country, he has raised money, he has done it through his personal credibility, through his vision for this country and for what the Democratic Party can do for the country and the world. You really can't overstate Terry McAuliffe's impact. And now he's going to leave the Democratic Party in terms of the visible leadership role, but buthe's never going to leave us in terms of the inspiration he's given us...he's leaving the party in tremendous financial shape just as our president left our country with a tremendous 5 1/2 trillion dollar surplus...

And you know, if McAuliffe hadn't made that contribution, do you think Kaine could have gone up on the airwaves with the famous transportation ad?

h/t Lowell

A few thoughts on tonight's debate

First, the polls are pointing towards a McAuliffe surge.

Second, tonight's debate went very well, so credit to Ben Tribbett for a huge achievement. That said, what terrible programming to put it directly opposite the Obama press conference.

Third, Moran really did himself no favors tonight coming across as a pugilistic and all around knobby-kneed attack dog. pretty sad.

Fourth, Creigh is a great guy, but half the time he comes across as less than gubernatorial. He's very energetic and has a very strong moral compass, but just looking at him and listening to him, makes you question. When you consider his positions on marriage equality, he loses the progressive vote.

Finally, McAuliffe is definitely the one to beat in this race. He is in the best position to take on McDonnell, has very strong and well-considered positions, and is really running by far the best campaign in Virginia politics this year. His common sense solutions will draw a stark contrast against McDonnell's radical ideologica in the fall.

Terry McAuliffe Polling Calls

Just got a call from "Friends of Terry McAuliffe".

That's the first call I've gotten from any campaign this season. It was a simple "who would you vote for if the primary were today and how many people do you talk to about political decisions" call, but it's good to see the McAuliffe people using their money well to get some early T+ tags into the voter database.

McAuliffe raises over $4 million

Great news today from the McAuliffe campaign.

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe raised $4.2 million in the three- month period that ended March 31, campaign officials said today.

McAuliffe, former chairman of Democratic National Committee, has nearly $2.5 million cash on hand.

"We are thrilled with the grassroots and fundraising support we have received over the last few months," McAuliffe campaign manager Mike Henry said. "Virginians are looking for a governor who will continue the Warner-Kaine tradition of leadership and bring both business and executive experience to Richmond. Terry's decades of experience creating jobs and turning around struggling businesses, as well as his detailed plans to get Virginia's economy back on track, have resonated with Virginia voters."

I endorsed the McAuliffe campaign because, in addition to bold positions on jobs, energy and the environment, this campaign is firing on all pistons and avoiding the vicious negativity of the Moran campaign.

Good stuff.