PPP: Good News for Deeds, McAuliffe... Moran? Not so Much

With only 12 days left before the Democratic primary here in Virginia,PPP takes a look at the remaining undecideds, and their findings are surprising.

First, this is an astonishingly fluid electorate. The candidates are largely unknown:

Among the voters still undecided 66% don't know enough about Creigh Deeds or Brian Moran to have an opinion about them one way or the other, and 55% don't know enough about McAuliffe.

So, who and where are these undecideds?

Many of them are African American, which could bode well for Terry McAuliffe:

-They're disproportionately African American- 37%, compared to 27% of the overall primary electorate in our most recent survey. So far McAuliffe has had the upper hand with them so that could work to his advantage.

Most are not in Northern Virginia - bad news for Brian Moran:

-They're disproportionately not from northern Virginia. While 29% of voters total in this race are, just 22% of the undecideds hail from the metro DC area. That's bad news for Brian Moran, who hasn't been able to get much momentum anywhere else in the state, and good news for Deeds whose weakest performance is in that region.

And many trend conservative, which may favor Creigh:

-They're more conservative and less liberal than primary voters as a whole. Among undecideds 27% are liberal and 22% are conservative, while in total 34% are liberal and just 14% are conservative. This could help Deeds, who does best with conservatives and worst with liberals, and hurt McAuliffe who does the best with liberals.

There's been a lot of good news lately for the McAuliffe and Deeds camps, and not much for the Morans. The trend continues.

Tuesday's Alexandria Disaster

You'll remember that because of his last minute decision to vacate his seat, Brian Moran almost cost Democrats one of their most reliable wins. His successor, Charniele Herring, came within 16 votes of a loss.

Moran's campaign chalked up another mark of shame this week. There's no excuse for the drubbing Alexandria Democrats received in Tuesday's City Council elections.

The Alexandria Democratic Committee suffered a setback Tuesday when two of its incumbent candidates were ousted by voters on Election Day. Republican Frank Fannon and independent candidate Alicia Hughes each won a place on the City Council. Incumbent Democrats Tim Lovain and Justin Wilson will step down from their seats this summer, when Fannon and Hughes will be installed as the council’s newest members. Some were calling for immediate changes in the party.

There are a lot of lessons to take away from this disaster. Some Democrats are calling for the ouster of Alexandria Committee Chair Susan Kellom:

"The buck stops with Susan Kellom," said outgoing Councilman Ludwig Gaines, calling for a new party leader. "She took credit for the victories with Democrats won, but she’s also got to take credit for the defeat."

This was Brian Moran's home turf, and if he is looking to be a kingmaker, he needs to show strength in his home town. While, the Alexandria Committee has some soul searching to do, Democrats from across Virginia need to be aware of how very weak the Moran campaign comes out of this debacle.

Here's a snippet I got from a poll worker for the McAuliffe campaign who was working at the Cory Kelly Rec Center polling place:

voter traffic was very slim at the Cora Kelly Rec Center. Apparently, none of the Alexandria races on this date are really competitive, thus low voter interest.

Given that this is Brian Moran country, I got quite good and polite reception from most voters. I really like the tag line "Jobs for Virginia" as it is punchy and easy to say even to voters moving fast.

[...]

No representatives of Moran or Deeds were there for most of the morning. At 8:20 am a Brian Moran guy showed up. It was obvious that he had been called by friends who were handing out literature at the polls. He was in a bad mood and spent most of his time talking to his friends

This is Brian Moran's home and his folks can't even turn out to work the polls for the City Council Election? I mean give me a break! Where's all that great grassroots support Brian? Where's all that devotion to helping down-ticket races?

This should serve as a wake up call for every Virginia Democrat. For all of our successes, VIRGINIA IS NOT BLUE! We have to fight and fight and fight every day, every election cycle to prove that Democratic ideas, values, and leadership are the best choice.

Tuesday's Alexandria Disaster was a result of complacency, plain and simple. McAuliffe is running the campaign necessary to win not just the Governor's mansion, but control of the House of Delegates. The McAuliffe campaign is working hard to get the word out at every level, while apparently the Morans can't be bothered to drive traffic, even in their backyard.

Every Democratic Delegate and every supporter of Democratic Delegates needs to keep this in mind. I'll leave you with some joyful celebration from the Republicans:

Congratulations to Councilmen-elect Frank Fannon and Alicia Hughes! Hughes ran as an Independent, but was endorsed by the Republican Party. That gives Republicans two votes on a six-person city council that Democrats have had a lock on since 2003, in a locality that went 72% for Obama six months ago!

Joe Murray, Pat Herrity, John Cook, now Fannon and Hughes. It’s been quite a four months for NoVa Republicans!

And this previous thought from the Too Conservative is worthy of consideration as well:

I fear McAuliffe drowning competitive House districts with money and giving a Democrat who could only raise $300K by himself an extra $500K to play around with.

Now we all have something to think about.

Moran Campaign Enters Panic Mode

Well, this is just getting sad.

First, Moran releases his internal polling numbers.

Kenton:

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
(Moran Campaign Internal)
606 LV, 4/30-5/3

TOPLINES
McAuliffe 31
Moran 29
Deeds 18
Undecided 22

FAV/UNFAV
McAuliffe 39/17
Moran 36/8
Deeds 31/11

Note that while these numbers show Moran behind, they at least show a dead heat on both toplines and favorables. After two straight double digit polls for McAuliffe, this can only be seen as a sign of outright panic. If the perception locks that McAuliffe is the leader and Moran is offering no message and gaining not traction, his funding and support will begin to evaporate. Such a shame...

Meanwhile, the Moran campaign broke their debate agreement and used footage from a debate in the latest of their pitiful online attacks against McAuliffe.

Read the Farm Team's charges against the Moran campaign at Decision Virginia. If you can't trust Moran to keep his word on debate rules, how can you trust him to keep his word as the Democratic Nominee?

Panic, disorder, mayhem - the Moran campaign's work here is almost done.

PPP: McAuliffe leading by double digits

PPP is up with its monthly poll of the Virginia Gubernatorial race. Last month, PPP had Brian Moran up by 2 points, this month Terry's up by 10.

Last week SurveyUSA had McAuliffe up by 16, making this the second poll in as many weeks showing Terry McAuliffe up by double digits.

Lowell has much more.

People from across the Commonwealth and all walks of life are waking up to the sense of Terry's candidacy, and even the most vicious negative attacks from the Moran campaign can't dissuade the voters.

McAuliffe has developed particularly commanding leads among women, African Americans, and voters describing themselves as liberals.

PPP postulates that 60% of the electorate is still up for grabs, but goes on:

“This is the fourth time PPP has polled this contest and the first time one of the candidates has broken away from the pack,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “McAuliffe’s resources advantage finally seems to be manifesting itself and by the time Deeds and Moran can start catching up it may be too late.”

At this point Moran appears to be counting on a low-turnout primary in order to keep voters from the polls. His ongoing negative attacks against the Terry McAuliffe aren't driving up his numbers, and are, in fact, having no effect in driving up McAuliffe's negatives, which actually ticked DOWN in this survey.

McAuliffe saw a strong increase in his positive name recognition over the last month, going from a 32/29 favorability spread to a 42/25 one.

Since Brian Moran, his campaign and supporters seem congenitally incapable of listening to criticism, the only question now is whether the Moran campaign will go nuclear with their attacks on Terry McAuliffe. In fact, it's more a question of when.

Moran Bad News Roundup

Brian Moran's despicable campaign is beginning to reap what they've sewn. On the heels of a campaign of hypocritical attacks, outright lies, and despicable personal political retribution, the Moran campaign is beginning to be exposed.

The press picked up on Moran's unprecedented negativity at this week's candidate's debate in Blacksburg.

I’ve covered a lot of debates. Rarely are there real fireworks or knock out punches. Usually, candidates are coached to be reserved, to show little personality, take few chances, and do no harm. Generally, it’s the easiest way to survive the debate. Apparently, Brian Moran didn’t get this memo.

Now, let’s be clear… all three candidates threw some punches. But, none as hard or as often as Moran. At one point he and McAuliffe were in a shouting match over, of all things, negative campaigning. Then Moran took it to an entirely new level when he used his ENTIRE closing statement to attack McAuliffe. He closed with two sentenc[es] saying he’s the strongest in the race. That’s it. Nothing else about him or his record. Just an all out attack on a fellow Democrat. And, the attack wasn’t on the issues. Instead his criticisms focused almost exclusively on more personal issues of McAuliffe’s business dealings, leadership style, and campaign tactics. It was the most negative closing statement I have ever seen.

Jeff Shapiro ridicules Moran's leftward fakes and radical attacks:

Then there's Brian Moran. When he's not trashing McAuliffe, Moran is moving further and further to the left. This suggests a couple of things: that McAuliffe really is ahead, or that Moran is really desperate. Either way, it's clear Moran is gambling the primary will attract only hard-core Democrats; you know, "liberals." So to attract the greens, Moran is against the coal-powered electric generator in Surry County. And to attract gays, Moran is promising to overturn the constitutional ban on same-sex marriage. These positions won't help Moran in a general election against Republican Bob McDonnell. Maybe Moran is making it up as he goes along. Not a sign of a seasoned candidate.

Meanwhile, WaPo picks up on Moran's hypocritical attacks on Creigh Deeds marriage equality record.

In 2004, Moran cast a vote in favor of a resolution sponsored by now Republican nominee Bob McDonnell that encouraged the U.S. Congress to adopt an amendment to the federal constitution banning both gay marriages and civil unions. The voting history on the resolution, a companion to a senate resolution sponsored by now attorney general candidate Sen. Ken Cuccinelli, is complex.

Moran had three opportunities to vote on the issue during the 2004 legislative session. Once, the General Assembly's records showed that he did not vote. Next, he voted against the resolution. But on the last vote, on March 10, 2004, he voted for the idea.

Laughably, Moran's Spokesman Jesse Ferguson claims that Moran's vote was wrongly recorded, despite this quote from Moran at the time:

Those of us that are uncomfortable with the state recognizing a gay marriage would have difficulty not supporting the resolution.

Virginia Democrat sums up Moran's campaign implosion:

What was Brian Moran thinking when he attacked Creigh on this issue?

In fact, that is the wrong question to ask at this point. There are many things like this in the Moran record, such as: Moran's vote for an unconstitutional restriction on abortion in 2003, even though his website claims he has never supported an unconstitutional restriction on choice; His advocacy of clean coal technology during an interview in Southwest Virginia; His vote in favor of the Wise coal plant even as he asserted a moral superiority ground in his opposition to the Surry one; his early criticism of Terry McAuliffe's out-of-state fundraisisng, even though Moran had done the same thing; and now, a checkered record on gay marriage (not to mention the bullshit excuse tossed by his communications director to try to bamboozle a reporter) even as he has the gall to tell another candidate he will be "held accountable" for his record.

In each of these cases, Moran supporters have either attacked the messenger seeking to bring his record to light or sought to minimize the damage through excuse-making -- it was only one vote, it was a long time ago, nobody cares anymore, blah, blah, blah.

At what point are there enough of these incidents that a pattern emerges, one that tells us that Brian Moran is simply not ready and not qualified to be the Democratic Party nominee for Governor?

Despite the fact that I was the target of a campaign of political retribution when I endorsed his opponent, it's still just sad to see a great Virginia Democrat like Brian Moran led so pitifully astray by a failed campaign. The man may not deserve to fail, but the campaign most certainly does. Still, in the immortal words of our Senator Jim Webb, "the fish rots from the head down". So it goes.